I really hope this joke, too often seen on anything and everything crypto, fills you with the same disgust and loathing that it does me. I mean we all know that we’re in it for the long term, right?

That HODL is a way of life, certainly not to be superseded by short-term thinking and longings for the next bull run! But.. it’s been eight months.

Eight long months since the heady heights of a $20,000 bitcoin at the end of 2017, and I must admit, I am ready to see a new All-Time High! When moon?!?

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for the next year? Or when is the ATH going to be reached again?

I remember the words, of one extremely wise in the ways of the force, saying “If you want to know what will happen right, just look left.” For those of you who drive in America, that kinda makes sense.

Look left before crossing the road or you may be splattered across the path to the right. But for an Englishman, this was not so straightforward, (we, of course, must look right before stepping off the curb). I suppose what he was saying is that history repeats itself.

So if I want to know when the correction phase of bitcoin to the downside, this dreaded bear market, will end I should look left. Look to the past for the other times this happened.

But, this was the first time BTC hit £20,000. Right? Well, yes. But it did do something very similar if you scroll back far enough. I’ve rambled on for too long so let’s get to some historical analysis.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction

In my first chart, I have BTC from the 2013 bull run. I see five distinct soldier hat waves followed by a new run to an all-time high. I want to predict what the current BTC price action will do so I’m very interested in how long it took this to unfold.

On a time analysis, there is not much of a run-up to the bull run it all happens quite fast.

Next, let’s take a look at the bull run of 2017 for BTC.

Bitcoin ATH coming soon? In this article we look at the charts and see what the Bitcoin Price Prediction for the future is.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – What The Charts Say.

To me, this looks very similar. A key difference is the slower lead-in. The BTC price builds throughout all of 2017, whereas it started much later in the year last time in 2013.

Here’s a quick table of the key timeframes

Time elapsed (Days)Bitcoin rally 2013Bitcoin rally 2017Delta/Change
Wave 1191319167%
Wave 21775933%
Wave 31028583%
Wave 4905157%
Wave 5126??
(New ATH) Arc 6555??

 

So what jumps out at me is how much faster we’re moving this time! And for a bigger percentage increase too!! 1350% in 2013 vs 2200% in 2017.

This is slightly skewed by the long lead into the 2017 rally. I wanted to plot the entire wave pattern. Let’s take out the long lead time and recalculate those numbers.

 

Time elapsed (Days)Bitcoin rally 2013Bitcoin rally 2017Delta/Change
Wave 11918746%
Wave 21775933%
Wave 31028583%
Wave 4905157%
Wave 5126??
(New ATH) Arc 6555??

 

That’s starting to look more reasonable using a later start date in 2017.

So what I really want to know is what is a reasonable timeframe to expect the correction cycle and bear market to end. To do this I am going to average the two entire cycles using the amended start point.

BTC rally 2013: 191 + 177 + 102 + 90 = 560 days.
BTC rally 2017:  87 + 59 + 85 + 51 = 282 days.

How much faster have we been in this cycle than the previous?
282 / 560 = 50% so nearly twice as fast. Therefore I’m going to extrapolate the length of Wave 5 and 6 to a new all-time high for BTC, based on this average.

Time elapsed (Days)Bitcoin rally 2013Bitcoin rally 2017Delta/Change
Wave 11918746%
Wave 21775933%
Wave 31028583%
Wave 4905157%
Wave 51266350%
(New ATH) Arc 655527950%

 

If we continue to follow a similar timeline to last time we could be in the bear market for a further 63 days until 17th October 2018. We will then start the next bull market to a new all-time high which will take 279 days to complete, or 23rd July 2019.

Personally, I think this is too long, I think we’ll be much much quicker than last time. Only time will tell.

That is enough for this article – Bitcoin Price Prediction – What The Charts Say, we have plenty more articles you will find useful like Learn how to trade, Coin reviews and more.

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